Virginia Unemployment Essay, Research Paper

The economic situation differs from country to country, caused by difference in

population, geography, monetary system, political situation and a lot of other

factors. But even within one country there are always a number of regions that

differ from one another by their economic performance. This situation is

especially true for big countries like US. If the regions are too broadly

defined, the economic diversity would be lost. If the regions are too narrowly

defined, they are not likely to have any viability as economic entities, and

this circumstance will increase the problem of developing good regional economic

data pertinent to the individual regions. Economic indicators like income,

employment and population may differ in the rural and urban areas of a single

region, but the growth of the region still depends on the economic performance

of the region as a whole, and especially the towns and cities. An input-output

model is very useful of measuring regional economic activity. Such a model

effectively determines the impact of one economic variable on another can be

used to analyze expected growth. The measure of regional economic indicators and

comparing them to national could produce a good estimate of economic performance

of a region. The regional economic model in case of the region within US could

be compared with the model of a small country. And national model could be seen

as an aggregation of many interrelated regional models. This paper includes an

estimation of the regional economic model The model is an attempt to estimate

possible relationship within economic indicators. This paper also presents an

analysis of regional economic indicators and national economic indicators in

order to compare economic performance of the region and national economy as a

whole. This model use annual national and state level data to produce regional

estimates of income, employment, wages, population, labor force and the

unemployment rate as a economic indicators for Virginia state as a region.

Previous studies Regional scientists have long attempted to develop meaningful

definitions and measures of economic diversity and diversification, and to

establish functional relationships between diversity, diversification, and

economic performance. The Regional economic models where (were) created to

answer questions like "What is the relationship between a region’s changing

economic structure and performance?. Recent econometric models of regions were

stressing macroeconomic relationship as a main idea of structuring of the model.

A Number of models have been constructed for states and even smaller areas in

order to find an effective forecasting tool linking the regional economic

forecasting to the national economic forecast. Regional models were constructed

as satellites to national models. Economic base theory views regional economic

growth as being driven by exogenous final demands, notably exports. Input-output

models are extensions of the economic base model, whereby intersectional

economic relationships are explicitly considered Because of the underlying

assumption that the regional economy is driven by exogenous final demands. The

idea of regional economic model that is (instead of "that is" say

"used") in this paper is based on two studies that present economic

models of regions in US. One study, reports on a regional economic modeling

approach used by East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. (EKPC), a rural electric

cooperative that serves 280,000 residential customers and 15,000 commercial

customers in east-central Kentucky. These models use quarterly, county-level

data to produce regional forecasts of income, employment, wages, population,

labor force and the unemployment rate (1). Another study describes an economic

model for state of Mississippi (2). Both studies indicated economic variables in

regional output, labor, and income and wages blocks and estimated regressions on

order(must be "in order") to fine (must be "to find")

direction of dependence among variables. Both studies provide graphical

interpretation of their models. Data Regional models often use data, which is

allocated to the region, state or national level on the basis of employment,

income or some other variable actually measured at the regional level. Such data

may serve the needs of particular model specifications and produce forecasts of

variables. In this study, Virginia regional model uses a variety of national and

regional data. The variables are summarized in (Appendix A). All variables were

taken from University of Virginia Social Science Data Center (8). Gross domestic

product (GDP), the featured measure of U.S. output, is the market value of the

goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.

Because the labor and property are located in the United States, the suppliers

(that is, the workers and, for property, the owners) may be either U.S.

residents or residents of the rest of the world. So GDP was taken as an estimate

of national Output, and it was measured in millions of Dollars. Growth State

Product was taken as an estimate for Virginia State Output and it is presented

in million of dollars. Data for population in presented in number of persons

both for Virginia and US. Data for unemployment includes all full-time and

part-time employment and is presented in number of persons. Personal income

includes wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors’ income

with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rental income of

persons with capital consumption adjustment, personal dividend income, personal

interest income, and transfer payments to persons. It is presented in millions

of dollars. All data is a time series data for time period from 1975 to 1997

both for US (national) and Virginia (regional). The problem with this data can

arise because all data is inquiring with time and variables were regressed

against closely related national. Model Structure and specification Economic

model consists of output, labor, and income blocks. These blocks include

economic indicators like regional output, population, employment, unemployment

rate, wage and salary rate, and personal income. The output block Output of the

region it a good estimate of business activity of the region. I could show how

intensive the region is involved in creation growth domestic product. The output

could be measured as a physical number of goods and services that are produced

in the region. But because of difference in the commodities it is hard to

combine them all together, so it is better to present the output as Growth

Domestic Product, in this case Growth State product of Virginia. Regional Output

depends on National Output. Both outputs experience the same business cycle and

increase in national output would stimulate regional economic growth, and the

output of the region would increase. Population is a good estimate of the demand

for output. With an increase in population region will also experience increase

in demand for goods and services. It gives an incentive for suppliers to produce

more output. Population is also a supply of labor force that is a potential

supply for new output. US wage and salary rate could be treated as an expense of

production and it could have negative influence on output, or in case if it is

higher than regional rate, then more output would be produced elsewhere. VaGSP =

-211348.8 + 0.02 UsGDP + 0.045 VaPop – 1.5 UsW&S (-3.24) (4.96) (3.11)

(-1.6) R=0.99 F=4675.87 National Output could be a good benchmark for Regional

Output. Comparing two outputs the conclusion could made about regional

performance. National output could present an estimate of the average

performance of all states in general. The figure of GDP is much bigger than

Virginia?s GSP because it is a sum of all states’ GDPs together. With growing

GDP, the growth rate of both variables will be a better basis for compression of

regional and national output. The growth rater of GDP and Virginia GSP are

plotted in Graph 1 Graph 1 GDP and Virginia GSP Growth Rate 1975-1997 Graph 1

shows that GDP and GSP are following the same paten, they are cointegrated. Form

1981 to 1987 the growth rate of GSP is exceeding GDP, and in 1997 they are

almost the same. This means that on average Virginia?s output is moving with

national output, so it is developing as fast as US. GDP depends on population

and it will increase with increase in population, so when comparing GDP and GSP

it will be useful to take Per Capita date, so it will be free of influence of

difference in population. Per capita GDP and GSP are presented in Graph 2 Graph

2 Per Capita GDP and Virginia GSP 1975-1997 Per capita GDP and Per capita GSP

increase over the time. In 1983 per capita Virginia?s GSP became higher that

per capita GDP and it still is in 1997. Since 1983 Virginia Per Capita GSP is

4.54% on average higher than Per Capita GDP. Labor market Block Three concepts

are presented in labor market block: regional unemployment rate, regional

employment and population. Population Population of the region could play an

important role in its development. Growth of population could stimulate economic

activity, create new businesses and increase output or the region. Migration to

a region can be an indicator of the region being more desirable to people in

terms of standards of living. Population of the region could change due to

demographic factors like birth rate or death rate or economic factors like

availability of job higher wages and higher standards of living. So population

could depend on average regional wage, or in this case wage and salary rate

(wage and salary per job) and unemployment rate. VaPop = 4395645.4 + 83.08 VaW&S

? 18830.1 VaUnplR (44.93) (39.73) (-1.35) R=0.99 F=5656.6 As it was mentioned

before, population of the region depends on some demographic factors along with

economic. So the purpose of this equation is to try to explain reason for

population to migrate from one region to another. People tend to move to regions

where they have better economic conditions. In this case wage and salary rate

has a positive affect on population, and unemployment rate – negative. People

will choose to move to a place with higher wages (or because of higher wages),

and bigger variety of available jobs (low unemployment). To compare population

growth of Virginia and US Graph 3 shows Population Growth rate for US and

Virginia Graph 3 US and Virginia Population Growth Rate 1975-1997 According to

Graph 3 Virginia Population Growth rate mostly exceeds that of the US through

the period from 1975 to 1997. And it is significantly higher during period of

time 1984-1991 and is slightly higher in 1997 Employment Employment is an

important economic indicator. It shows the number of people that are engaged in

production of regional output, people that are receiving income and paying taxes

to the government. The Employment equation is in a form of labor demand

relationship, where labor demanded is a function of regional output. Employment

is population of a region that encouraged in production or creation of regional

output. This means that the number of jobs available (employment) depends on the

region output. Growth State Product is taken as an estimate for total output of

Virginia. So GSP determines demand for number of jobs (employment). Employment

of the region also depends on the wage rate of the region and how it stands

comparing with national rate. The high wage and salary will attract people (both

from inside and outside the region) to take a job. If we take employment as an

estimate of labor force than it should depend on population of the region,

because labor force is a population of a certain age. Vaempl = 1980348.6+5.59

VaGSP + 35.01 VaW&S (25.01) (1.98) (1.43) R=0.98, F=83612.36 When including

population in this regression it showed a positive relationship but was not

significant. Two other variables are significant at 85% level of significance,

are positively related to employment. Increase of output stimulates an increase

of demand for labor (increase in employment) and increase in wages and salaries

stimulates more people to take a job. Graph 4 shows the growth rates of Regional

employment and National employment Graph 4 US and Virginia Employment Growth

Rate 1975-1997 Employment in Virginia is growing at a higher rate than in the US

for the time period form 1982 to 1988. Over 20-year period of time regional and

national employment growth rates are cointegrated. It is also useful to know

what is the ratio of employment to a total population of the region. This data

is plotted in a Graph 5 Graph 5 US and Virginia Employment ? Population Ratio

1975-1997 The employment to population ratio is higher for Virginia. It means

that higher percentage of population is employed in Virginia than in US on

average. Unemployment rate Unemployment rate of the region is an indicator of

the labor market performance. An increase of unemployment rate causes a decrease

of employment and regional output. The regional unemployment rate depends on

national unemployment rate. The correlation coefficient between national and

regional unemployment rate is 0.98. Regional economy experiences the same

recessions and expansions as national does. So we should expect a positive

relationship between national and regional unemployment rate. If we take an

employment as an estimation of number of jobs available in the region than

employment can determine unemployment rate of the region. With more jobs

available the rate of unemployment should decrease. Population can also

influence unemployment rate. If population is growing in faster rate that number

of available jobs than unemployment rate would increase. VaUnplR = -4.161 + 0.55

UsUnplR + 0.000002 VaPop ? 0.000003 VaEmpl (-1.43) (5.08) (1.91) (-1.95)

R=0.83 F=30.55 Compressing of US and VA Unemployment rate is shown in Graph 6

Graph 6 US and Virginia Unemployment rate 1975-1997 Through 20-year period

Virginia unemployment rate lower than US unemployment rate. US and Virginia

unemployment rates are moving together depending on economic situation in US.

Wage rate and personal Income Block Wages & Salary Wage and salary rates can

estimate earnings of the region. Age and experience of regional workforce will

influence wage and salary rate. So the average wage and salary rate can indicate

the type and labor forth of the region. The change in regional wage will be a

subject to most of the same determinants as change in market wages. Regional

wages and salary rates are related with national rate. The correlation

coefficient is 0.99, so it means that wage rate of region is very sensitive to

the wages of the country as a whole. An increase in the national wage rate would

cause regional wage to go up because the change in regional and national rates

are caused by the same factors like inflation or increase in output. Regional

wage and salary rate depends on Growth State Product. Wages and salaries are

part of the GSP as and they are included as a cost of production, so if GSP

increases it means that there will be more money to distribute to employees. VaW&S

= -554.48 + 0.944 UsW&S + 0.0089 VaGSP (-2.58) (30.94) (2.58) R=0.99

F=3744.6 US and Virginia wage and Salary rates are compared in a Graph 7 Graph 7

US and Virginia Wage and Salary Rate 1975-1997 The US Wage and Salary is higher

than regional. Both variables increase with time but Virginia rate remains lower

then US rate. This means that Virginia?s salaries and wages are lower than in

US on average. Income The income of the region is a important factor of regional

development, income is the money that can be spent on goods and services and is

determining the demand for regional output, and increase in personal income can

stimulate growth of regional economy. Regional Income depends on employment of

the region and regional wage and salary rate. Both these variable have a

positive relationship with income. The more people are employed the more money

population receives. The higher is wage and salary rate the population of a

region is getting more money for their work. VaInc = -67481.93 + 0.154 VaEmpl +

5.94 VaW&S (-3.89) (1.54) (7.02) R=0.99 F=1383.38 Growth rate of income US

and Virginia is compared in Graph 8 Graph 8 US and Virginia Income Growth Rate

1975-1997 Income growth rate for Virginia and US are cointegrated. Until 1990

the Virginia Income growth rate was higher than that of the US. But after 1990

it is almost the same as the rest of country. Per Capita income is an estimate

of income available for each person in Virginia or US on average. Graph 9 shows

regional and national per capita income. Graph 9 US and Virginia Per Capita

Income 1975-1997 Virginia Per Capita Income is higher than that of the US since

1983. This shows that there is more income on average for each person in

Virginia than in US. As it was maintained before Virginia?s wage and salary

rate is lower than in US, but so does unemployment rate. The lower Unemployment

rate stimulates high per capita income, even with low wage and salary rate.

Graphic description of Virginia regional model is presented in Appendix B

Analysis Virginia is a region of fast growing economic activities and

development. Virginia offers a number of advantages for business. The state is

centrally located on the Eastern Seaboard Effective economic development depends

on elements with which Virginia is richly endowed. Location is one of them. Over

50% of the total U.S. population is within 500 miles of Richmond, Virginia’s

capital. As a measure of its economic stability, Virginia balanced its latest

budget without raising taxes, one of only two states to do so according to

Financial World magazine, and was recognized by that publication as the nation’s

best managed state. Development of the region runs on infrastructure, and in

this category, Virginia boasts nearly 1,100 miles of highways, 3,300 miles of

rail Roads, and Dulles International Airport. The daily confluence of goods and

services across this network paints a portrait of economic development at its

most sophisticated level. Nowhere is this more apparent than at Hampton Roads,

the country’s largest natural deep-water port that in 1991 accounted for 73

million tons of foreign trade — a figure that is still growing. The education

institutions are very developed in Virginia. Virginia has 84 institutions of

higher learning. Twenty-three of these are community colleges on 34 sites

offering training in the business discipline as well as advanced vocational

training. In 1991, more than 2,600 students in Virginia’s colleges and

universities earned degrees in the field of engineering — creating a talent

pool essential to nation’s high-tech future. The overall performance of

Virginia? economic indicators is shown in Table 1 Table 1 Economic Indicator

General state Period when higher than US indicator Output Growth rate Average

1980-1988 Per Capita Output Average 1984-1997 Population Growth Higher than

average 1983-1997 Employment growth rate Average 1982-1988 Unemployment rate Low

– Wage and salary rate Low — Income Growth rate Average 1980-1989 Per Capita

Income Average 1982-1997 As can seen for Table 1 period form 1980-1990 can be

characterized as a period of fast economic growth. In this period economic

indicators of Virginia were higher that in the US. After 1990 there is some

decrease in economic development of the region. This decrease in economic

activates could be explained by some specialization of state of Virginia. One

out of five jobs in Virginia is a civilian government position. Though federal

civilian employment has been in a steady decreasing since 1992, rising state and

local government employment has offset these losses. In 1997 and 1998, civilian

government employment in Virginia will actually experience a net growth of about

1 percent, the report predicted Virginia’s economy depends heavily on its

defense industries. Though period 1980-1990 the defense industry was in

prosperity, a lot of money was invested during presidency of R. Raygan and

period of Cold War. Since 1990 Virginia had experienced few rounds of defense

cuts that influenced the economic situation of the region. But there are some

efficient state conversion program is helping to prepare for coming defense

spending cutbacks. With its concentration on electronics and shipbuilding,

Virginia has been spared the first round of defense. The Virginia plans to

soften the blow of defense. The good example of this is Northern Virginia aria.

It is the most developed part of Virginia. Companies in telecommunications;

Internet applications; systems development, integration and implementation; and

the chemical and biomedical industries have all either relocated or created

offices in Northern Virginia. The area is also home to nonprofit agencies and,

of course, government agencies. Conclusion Economic situation of the region can

differ from national depending on performance of regional economic indicators.

The economic factors that can economic performance of the region that were

presented in this paper are Regional Output, Population, Employment,

Unemployment rate, Wage and Salary rate, and Personal Income. These economic

factors are the main variables of regional economic model that presented in this

paper. Appendix B is the graphic interpretation of the mode. It gives the idea

of relationships that exists in among variables. One of the most impotent

economic indicators of the model is output of the region. It determines the

demand for labor in the region and it is the main source of income for

population. So the high regional output generally implies the high economic

performance of the region. In order to make conclusions about the level of

performance of the region it is useful to compare it with national economic

performance. In this paper Virginia state economic indicator were compared to

US. The Virginia performance could be caricaturized as an average relative to

US. Virginia?s advantage is that Unemployment in this state is lower than in

US. Wage and Salary rates is slightly lower than in US, but Per capita Income

still increases average Per capita Income of US. For some period of time

(1980-1990) Virginia Economy was booming: all economic indicators showed better

performance of the region. This could be explained by increase in government

expenditures on defense industry (the significant of economy of Virginia) in

1980?s. The decrease in economic activity of Virginia began with defense

spending cutbacks in 90?s. But this situation is changing now because of new

arias with developing high technology industries and business sectors like

Northern Virginia.

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University of Virginia Social Science Data Center: http://fisher.lib.virginia.edu/

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Linkins: Virginia’s New Dominion: Northern Virginia’s Silicon Dominion is home

to high-tech firms that offer work in every facet of IT. Computerworld, August

16, 1999 11. Richard Meyer: Of swords and plowshares: how Virginia plans to

soften the blow of defense cutbacks on its economy. Financial World, June 8,

1993