Al Prediction On Demographics Essay, Research Paper

Alabama Prediction Based on Demographics

Demographics are the statistics of human population especially with reference to size, density, distribution, and vital statistics used to identify markets and patterns (Websters Dictionary). With the demographics of a particular state, voting predictions are determined through previous patterns. It seems, based on the demographics of Alabama, that the state will vote Republican, in favor of George W. Bush, in the upcoming 2000 election.

Several demographic divisions such as race, religion, union membership, education and class associate Alabama more closely with the Republican Party than with the Democrat party. Racially, Alabama has a white population of 73% and a non-white population of only 27%. Because there is a larger white population, that typically votes Republican, Alabama is expected to vote Republican along racial lines. Alabama has a fairly insignificant ethnic population, causing the state to be carried by the dominant Republican voting natives. In Alabama, there was a 70.7% Protestant population, 3.4% Catholic population, and a 0.2% Jewish population. Due to these numbers and general trends, Alabama\’s mostly Protestant population will influence the vote in favor of the Republican ticket. Also, due to the declining interest in union membership, Alabama, in accordance with general trends, is likely to vote Republican. As opposed to the 16.9% union participation in 1983, Alabama now only has a 10% participation rate. Alabama has a lower percetenge of college graduates than high school graduates. This statistic would predict that Alabama is more likely to vote Republican, because generally the higher level of education one has the more liberal they become. Recently, class divisions in voting have become less significant. Alabama\’s number of blue-collar employees and its number of wealthy white-collar employees seem to be pretty close. However, I think there are a few more white collar voters who will slant the class vote towards the Republican ticket. Overall, demographic categories in race, religion, union membership, and class predict that Alabama will vote Republican in the upcoming election.

Even though some categories, such as a young voting population would lean the state towards a Democratic vote, majority of the divisions predict that Alabama will be a solid Republican state in the 2000 election. Also, in agreement with the overwhelmingly conservative social and economical sentiments of the South, we predict Alabama will vote Republican.

New York Prediction Based on Demographics

Demographics are the statistics of human population especially with reference to size, density, distribution, and vital statistics used to identify markets and patterns (Websters Dictionary). Based on this information specific to the state of New York, we predict the state will vote democratically in favor of Al Gore.

In New York, significant demographic categories such as party registration, union membership, population, and declared tendencies support Democratic sentiments in New York. In New York, 47% of the population is registered as Democrats while only 29% are Republican. Obviously, the, Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democratic nominee, seems to have a strong lead. Even though union membership has declined from 32.5% to 25.4% since 1983, a significant amount of the population still participates in unions. The tendency for union members is to vote democratically. Finally, New York\’s racially and ethnically diverse population slants the vote towards the Democratic Party. New York has a white population of 76.4%, but has a non-white population of 32.1%. Therefore, a significant amount of the racial vote will go to the Democratic ticket. Also, New York has a very high ethnic population that is expected to vote democratically. Due to all of these factors, and just a few categories that put New York in favor of the Republican ticket, we predict that New York will be a solid Democratic state.

Also, due to the general liberal tendencies of the North that include New York sentiments, we predict New York will vote democratically.