As A Society Changes Essay, Research Paper

With each passing day, people age, babies are born,

and people die. Yet, as each day passes on, what happens to

the population? Does a majority of the population fall within a

certain age bracket, and if so, what is that age bracket?

Peter, is the founder and president of Global Business

Network, an organization which studies business and

demographic trends. He presents an argument stating that a

majority of the population will be teenagers in the 21st century

(49). Schwartz s argument is refuted by Wolfgang Lutz, head

of the Population Project of the International Institute of

Applied Systems Analysis, who feels that the population

trends of the 21st century will lead to the elderly being the

dominant age group (57). Schwartz feels that the young will

be the majority, and Lutz feels that the elderly would be a

significant minority not a majority, therefore there will always

be a workforce large enough to provide for the needs of the

elderly.

According to Schwartz, people under 25 constitute

more than 52% of the world population (53). Most of these

young people are located in Asia; the lowest numbers can be

found in North America and Europe. The early twenty-first

century will bring a global baby boom and the emergence of a

two-billion-strong global teenager age-group (49).Teenagers

are currently targeted economically because of the

purchasing power they possess. A new generation of

teenagers are hanging out in the shopping malls and

spending their parents hard earned money. The products

targeted towards teenagers include sneakers, clothes,

makeup and electronics. But teenagers will expand their

power into politics and economics, which influence the future

of the world.

The teenagers of the future will be more educated and

informed than the teenagers of the baby boom. They will be

interconnected through the basic technology of satellites,

Walkman, video, television and the Internet. (50-51)The

teenagers of tomorrow will spend the monetary equivalent of

a car on interactive computer workstations with virtual reality

capabilities; computer generated images will be part of

everyday life (54). This in return will cause teenagers to

become reliant on computers, a source of contact and

information that is both social and factual. The power of the

electronic media will become a force that will shape views

and opinions.

The information shared amongst the teenagers will

lead to a feeling of power and identity which in turn will lead to

a reshaping of the world through their idealism and energy.

The ideas that shape their world will be either highly ambitious

or cynical, depending upon poverty, inflation and the media s

view of things (52). To combat this, there will be a war,

whether it be a entrepreneurial/capitalist or a literal war. It has

been proven that societies with a large number of males are

more likely to start wars over land, territory and ideology (52).

The fears over a global population with a majority of

teenagers comes from uncertainty over what will happen.

There has been the thought that the teenagers of tomorrow

will be over ambitious, use cheap communication, have the

mindset of a computer programmer, travel to other places via

the Internet, and provide uncertainty for the future because of

demographics (55). The uncertainty of demographics is due

to not knowing the rate of immigration. The problem with

immigration is those coming from less developed countries to

more developed countries will not know the new technology

and be disadvantaged. For example, a teenager from Mexico

who goes to the United States may not know how to type or

surf the web and therefore will be at a disadvantage in the job

market. In the job market it is estimated that 85% of the labor

force will be comprised of young, culturally diverse nonwhite

workers (56).

To distinguish trends in the workforce is also a difficult

task. This is due to not knowing what may happen and cause

huge immigration waves due to world conditions. Yet, the

current trends in fertility, mortality and immigration are

causes of the elderly becoming the dominant age group.

Approximately one in three people are currently under age 15

in contrast to one in ten being over 60. But those numbers are

soon to change due to the average age increasing. (58)

According to Lutz, the average age of the world s

population will rise from 28 to 41 years old in 2100, with the

increase of people over 60 years old increasing from 9.2% to

25.5% (57). The oldest populations are located in Western

Europe. The reason for this is that industrialized societies

have better medicine and technology that enables the

inhabitants to live longer.

The lifecycle has an effect on the society. The

increase and decrease in a population depends upon the rate

of growth. The slower the population growth, the faster the

aging of the population (60). Countries such as those in Africa

will have a problem supporting their elderly because there

aren t programs for them. Due to disease, environmental

problems, political instability and civil wars, taking care of the

elderly is not a main concern in Africa.

However, the United States is a stable country and

there is the problem of how to take care of the elderly.

Currently, the elderly receive social security and Medicare.

But because the baby boomer population is aging, it is likely

that by 2030 1 in 4 people will be older than 60 (63). Currently,

the average age is 28, but by 2030 as well, the average will

rise to between 31-35 years old (58). Lutz has also projected

that China and Western Europe will be the two regions most

impacted by the growing elderly population (57).

The rate of population growth is dependent on fertility.

If, the world follows a policy of low fertility, the population

pyramid will shrink causing, the population to be mainly

elderly. If the population of a country is mainly elderly, what

will happen? This leaves a country open for attacks and war

from countries with higher youth populations. Also, who will

replace the elderly when they pass on? The base of the age

pyramid will narrow and thus cause harm in the long run. The

only way to avoid aging of a population is to have a higher

fertility rate. Yet this contradicts the need for a smaller

population and less population growth.

There is no solution to the question of Is society

better off with a larger elderly or teenage population? The

future can not be predicted no matter what technique is used.

Something will always occur that alters the path to the future.

Technology will help to keep the elderly population healthy and

live longer lives. But on the same hand, a war or famine can

destroy populations all together whether young or old. The

population shifts and growth rates are really dependent on

what economic level the country is. Developed nations will

have older population due to technology. The less developed

countries will have higher teenager populations due to the

high birth rates. Overall, the elderly and young populations will

balance causing both to co-exist and not have a dominant

population group.

Works Cited

Bender, David and Bruno Leone. 21st Century Earth. San Diego:

Greenhaven Press, 1996.